Working papers

Free download in PDF format

Working Papers published from 2003 may be downloaded free of charge. Working Papers 363, 365 and 369 published in 2002 may also be downloaded free of charge. All Working Papers are available for purchase, please contact sdsc@anu.edu.au

Working papers 1 to 360 are AUD$6.00 each with the exception of WP57 and WP361, both are $AUD12 each.

Working papers 362 to 415 are $AUD8.00 each.

2009 |2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998

2009
WP415	Conceptualising the Three-Tier Approach to Analyse the Security Arrangements in the Asia-Pacific by Ryo Sahashi ISBN 978 0 7315 5492 8 (December 2009; 38 pages)
WP414	'Simple Solutions to Complex Matters': Identifying fundamental principles of Alternative Dispute Resolution in the multinational effort to broker a resolution to the Bougainville 'Crisis' by Reuben R.E. Bowd ISBN 978 0 7315 5490 4 (May 2009; 52 pages)
WP413	Australia's Nation-Building: An Assessment of its Contribution to Regional Security in the Pacific, and a New Policy to Guide its Future by Mark Shephard ISBN 978 0 7315 5489 8 (May 2009; 55 pages)
WP412	Keeping Our Yellowcake Peaceful: A Policy Framework for Uranium Exports by Ron Huisken ISBN 978 0 7315 5488 1 (March 2009; 10 pages)
2008
WP411	Strategic Realignment or Déjà vu? Russia-Indonesia Defence Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century by Alexey Muraviev and Colin Brown ISBN 978 0 7315 5487 4 (December 2008; 42 pages)
WP410	Implications of the Sale of Australian Uranium to India by Sandy Gordon ISBN 978 0 7315 5486 7 (September 2008; 14 pages)
WP409	Globalising the INF Treaty: The best way to inhibit the proliferation of long-range missiles? by Ron Huisken ISBN 978 0 7315 5485 0 (May 2008; 12 pages)
WP408	Southeast Asia: Major Power Playground or Finishing School? by Ron Huisken ISBN 978 0 7315 5484 3 (April 2008; 16 pages)
WP407	Australia's Security Relationship with Japan: How much further can it go? by Paul Dibb ISBN 978 0 7315 5483 6 (April 2008; 15 pages)
WP406	The Future Balance of Power in East Asia: What are the Geopolitical Risks? by Paul Dibb ISBN 978 0 7315 5482 9 (January 2008; 16 pages)
2007
WP405	Foundations for Modern Approaches to the China Security Question by John Lee ISBN 978 0 7315 5481 2 (July 2007; 59 pages)
WP404	Dien Bien Phu, and the Defence of Australia by Alan Stephens ISBN 978 0 7315 5480 5 (June 2007; 22 pages)
WP403	The Domain in which we Dwell: The Foundations, Form and Future of Land Warfare by Craig Stockings ISBN 978 0 7315 5479 9 (April 2007; 33 pages)
WP402	The Defence Diarchy: A Case Study on its Abolition in New Zealand by Derek Quigley ISBN 978 0 7315 5478 2 (April 2007; 21 pages)
2006
WP401	The Probabilities of On the Beach: Assessing 'Armageddon Scenarios' in the 21st Century by Desmond Ball ISBN 978 0 7315 5475 1; also ISBN 0 7315 5475 2 (20 pages)
WP400	Australia's International Defence Relationships with the United States, Indonesia and New Zealand by Richard Brabin-Smith ISBN 978 0 7315 5474 4; also ISBN 0 7315 5474 4 (33 pages)
WP399	Iraq: Why a Strategic Blunder Looked So Attractive by Ron Huisken ISBN 978 0 7315 5470 6; also ISBN 0 7315 5470 1 (33 pages)
2005
WP398	Assisting the Solomon Islands: Implications for Regional Security and Intervention by James Stratford ISBN 0 7315 5469 8 (May 2005, 30 pages)
WP397	From 'Poisonous Shrimp' to 'Porcupine': An Analysis of Singapore's Defence Posture Change in the early 1980s by Pak Shun Ng ISBN 0 7315 5466 3 (April 2005, 66 pages)
WP396	The Heartland of Australia's Defence Policies by Richard Brabin-Smith ISBN 0 7315 5465 5 (April 2005, 22 pages)
WP395	A Threat-Based Reassessment of Western Air Power by Alan Stephens ISBN 0 7315 5464 7 (January 2005, 32 pages)
WP394	The Use of Depleted Uranium Ammunition in Operation Iraqi Freedom: A War Crime? by Christopher Michaelsen ISBN 0 7315 5462 0 (January 2005, 28 pages)
2004
WP393	North Korea: Power Play or Buying Butter with Guns? by Ron Huisken ISBN 0 7315 5461 2 (October 2004, 62 pages)
WP392	Instability in the US-ROK Alliance: Korean Drift or American Shift? by Brendan Taylor ISBN 0 7315 5459 0 (August 2004, 22 pages)
WP391	Opportunities and Obstacles: Future Australian and New Zealand Cooperation on Defence and Security Issues by Gavin Keating ISBN 0 7315 5458 2 (August 2004, 26 pages)
WP390	We Don't Want the Smoking Gun to be a Mushroom Cloud: Intelligence on Iraq's WMD by Ron Huisken ISBN 0 7315 5457 4 (June 2004, 80 pages)
WP389	Muslims, Terrorism and Rise of the Hindu Right in India by Sandy Gordon ISBN 0 7315 5456 6 (May 2004, 50 pages)
WP388	How the Tatmadaw Talks: The Burmese Army's Radio Systems by Desmond Ball
WP387	Australia's Renewal of Training Links with Kopassus: A Critique by Damien Kingsbury ISBN 0 7315 5451 5 (March 2004, 28 pages)
WP386	America and China: A Long Term Challenge for Statesmanship and Diplomacy by Ron Huisken ISBN 0 7315 5452 3 (March 2004, 22 pages)
WP385	The Threat of Terrorism and Regional Development by Ron Huisken ISBN 0 7315 5450 7 (January 2004, 24 pages)
2003
WP384	The Tyranny of Difference: Perceptions of Australian Defence Policy in Southeast Asia by David Bolton ISBN 0 7315 5449 3 (December 2003, 22 pages)
WP383	The End of Strategy: Effects-Based Operations by Alan Stephens ISBN 0 7315 5448 (December 2003, 26 pages)
WP382	China's Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) Satellite Programs by Desmond Ball
WP381	National Effects-Based Approach: A Policy Discussion Paper by Brice Pacey ISBN 0 7315 5446 9 (November 2003, 24 pages)
WP380	Security Trends in the Asia-Pacific Region: An Emerging Complex Arms Race by Desmond Ball ISBN 0 7315 5445 0 (November 2003, 42 pages)
WP379	Biological Weapons: An Overview of Threats and Responses by Christian Enemark ISBN 0 7315 5443 4 (October 2003, 62 pages)
WP378	Trash or Treasure: Knowledge Warfare and the Shape of Future War by David Connery ISBN 0 7315 5442 6 (October 2003, 24 pages)
WP377	Burma's China Connection and the Indian Ocean Region by Andrew Selth ISBN 0 7315 5436 1 (October 2003, 27 pages)
WP376	Radical Islamist Groups in the Modern Age: A Case Study of Hizbullah by Lieutenant-Colonel Rodger Shanahan ISBN 0 7315 5435 3 (June 2003, 41 pages)
WP375	The Justifications for Jihad, War and Revolution in Islam by Brek Batley ISBN 0 7315 5433 7 (June 2003, 34 pages)
WP374	Transformation or Stagnation?: Rethinking Australia's Defence by Alan Dupont ISBN 0 7315 5431 0 (May 2003, 26 pages)
WP373	The Kopassus Dilemma: Should Australia Re-engage? by Alan Dupont
WP372	Iraq: (November 2001-November 2002) – America's Checks and Balances Prevail over Unilateralism by Ron Huisken
2002
WP371	The Sydney Olympics: The Trouble-Free Games by Clive Williams
WP370	Organised Crime and Terrorism in the Asia-Pacific Region: The Reality and the Response by John McFarlane
WP369	The War on Terror and Air Combat Power: A Word of Warning for Defence Planners by Paul Dibb ISBN 0 7315 5425 6 (10 pages; Note: pagination differs from printed copy.)
WP368	Asia Pacific Security Taking Charge, Collectively by Ron Huisken
WP367	Malaysia's security perspectives by Andrew Tan
WP366	QDR 2001: America's New Military Roadmap: Implications for Asia and Australia by Ron Huisken
WP365	The Utility and Limits of the International Coalition against Terrorism by Paul Dibb ISBN 0 7315 5418 3 (14 pages; Note: pagination differs from printed copy.)
WP364	The First War of the 21st Century. Asymmetric Hostilities and the Norms of Combat by Coral Bell
WP363	A Strategic Framework for Missile Defence by Ron Huisken ISBN 0 7315 5416 7 (18 pages; Note: pagination differs from printed copy.)

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2001

WP362
ANZUS: Life after 50. Alliance Management in the 21st Century by Ron Huisken

WP361
Indonesian Security Responses to Resurgent Papuan Separatism: An Open Source Intelligence Case Study by Matthew NM. Davies

WP360
Missile Defence: Trends, Concerns and Remedies by Desmond Ball

WP359
The New Submarine Combat Information System and Australia's Emerging Information Warfare Architecture by Desmond Ball

WP358
South Africa's Defence Industry: A Template for Middle Powers? By Greg Mills & Martin Edmonds

WP357
ABM vs BMD The Issue of Ballistic Missile Defence by Ron Huisken

WP356
Factionalism and the Ethnic Insurgent Organisations in the Thailand-Burma Borderlands by Desmond Ball and Hazel Lang

WP355
Professor A.D. Trendall and his Band of Classical Cryptographers by R.S. Merrillees

WP354
The Indonesian Military Business complex: Origins, Course and Future by Bilveer Singh

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2000

WP353
Japanese Airborne SIGINT Capabilities by Desmond Ball and Euan Graham

WP352
Landmines in Burma: The Military Dimension by Andrew Selth

WP351
Burma’s Order of Battle: An Interim Assessment by Andrew Selth

WP350
Strategic Trends in the Asia-Pacific Region by Paul Dibb

WP349
Interpreting China-Indonesia Relations: ‘Good-Neighbourliness’, ‘Mutual Trust’ and ‘All-Round Cooperation’ by He Kai

WP348
The Army’s Capacity to Defend Australia Offshore: The Need for a Joint Approach by John Caligari

WP347
The Prospects for Southeast Asia’s Security by Paul Dibb

WP346
Officer Education and Leadership Training in the Tatmadaw: A Survey by Maung Aung Myoe

WP345
Will America’s Alliances in the Asia-Pacific Region Endure? by Paul Dibb

WP344
The Principle of Non-Intervention and ASEAN: Evolution and Emerging Challenges by Herman Kraft

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1999

WP 343
Cambodia and Southeast Asia by Tony Kevin

WP342
The Tatmadaw in Myanmar since 1988: An Interim Assessment by Maung Aung Myoe

WP341
The Asian Financial Crisis: Corruption, Cronyism and Organised Crime by John McFarlane

WP340
The Evolving Security Architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region by Desmond Ball

WP 339
Military Doctrine and Strategy in Myanmar: A Historical Perspective by Maung Aung Myoe

WP 338
The Burmese Armed Forces Next Century: Continuity or Change? by Andrew Selth

WP337
Defence Strategy in the Contemporary Era by Paul Dibb

WP336
Burma and Drugs: The Regime's Complicity in the Global Drug Trade by Desmond Ball

WP335
Transnational Crime and Illegal Immigration in the Asia-Pacific Region: Background, Prospects and Countermeasures by John McFarlane

WP334
Burma and Weapons of Mass Destruction by Andrew Selth

WP333
Security Developments and Prospects for Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region, with particular referenced to the Mekong River Basin by Desmond Ball

WP332
Strategic Information Warfare: A Concept by Daniel T. Kuehl

WP331
Implications of the East Asian Economic Recession for Regional Security Cooperation by Desmond Ball

WP330
The US-Australian Alliance: History and Prospects by Desmond Ball

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1998

WP329
The Relevance of the Knowledge Edge by Paul Dibb

WP328
Drugs, Transnational Crime and Security in East Asia by Alan Dupont

WP327
Building the Tatmadaw: The Organisational Development of the Armed Forces in Myanmar, 1948-98 by Maung Aung Myoe

WP326
Researching Security in East Asia: From 'Strategic Culture' to 'Security Culture' by Pauline Kerr

WP325
The Nuclear Crisis in Asia: The Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Programmes by Desmond Ball and Mohan Malik

WP 324
The Remaking of Asia's Geopolitics by Paul Dibb

WP323
Responses to NATO's Eastward Expansion by the Russian Federation by Alexei Mouraviev

WP322
Singapore's Defence Policy in the New Millennium by Andrew Tan

WP321
The Future of the ASEAN Regional Forum: An Australian View by Alan Dupont

WP320
UN Peacekeeping, UNIFIL and the FIJIAN Experience by Jim Sanday

WP319
The Evolution of China's Perception of Taiwan by Shen Lijun

WP318
The South African National Defence Force: Between Downsizing and New Capabilities? by Greg Mills

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Working paper abstracts

WP382 China's Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) Satellite Programs by Desmond Ball (ISBN 0 7315 5447 7, December 2003, 32 pp. A$8.00)

China has exhibited a spasmodic interest in development of an ELINT satellite capability since it began its military space program in the late 1960s. It has experimented with several different sorts of ELINT spacecraft and satellite configurations, including single, dedicated ELINT satellites, small doublets and triplets, and ELINT packages on large multi-mission satellites. It is likely that ELINT packages have been deployed aboard some PHOTINT, communications and 'experimental technology' satellites, as well as the Shenzhou spacecraft developed for China's manned space program.

This paper describes these Chinese SIGINT satellite programs, including the management and control structure, the satellite systems, and prospective developments.

Note: This paper is a revised and expanded version of Desmond Ball, 'China Pursues Space-based Intelligence Gathering Capabilities', Jane's Intelligence Review, (Volume 15, No. 12), December 2003, pp.36-39.

WP372 Iraq: (November 2001-November 2002) – America's Checks and Balances Prevail over Unilateralism by Ron Huisken (ISBN 0 7315 5428 0, January 2003, 39pp. A$8.00)

Between November 2001 and September 2002 the Bush administration tried to prepare the US, and the rest of the world, for pre-emptive military action to remove the Iraqi regime and bring that country into full and durable compliance with UN resolutions under a new, democratic government. It was a costly exercise. The US succeeded for a time in making itself, rather than Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden, the principal source of international concern. On 4 September 2002, President Bush abruptly changed course, committing his administration to achieving the same goal by the book, both domestically and internationally. What drove the administration down this path and sustained it as the political costs and risks mounted? Was the switch to the UN real or essentially cosmetic, only deferring slightly the intention to secure regime change?

WP371 The Sydney Olympics: The Trouble-Free Games by Clive Williams (ISBN 0 7315 5427 2, 13pp. A$8.00)

This working paper looks at the security processes developed for, and the outcomes of, the 2000 Summer Olympic Games staged in Sydney. It reviews the coordination of various agencies and departments, a whole-of-government approach which, when underpinned by strong security risk management principles, proved vital to the success of the Games. The paper focuses on communications, secure venues, security policy issues and security concerns, border controls, sky marshals and firearms, emergency response and Defence support, anti-terrorism exercises, and overseas confidence-building measures. The paper shows that the 2000 Games served as a model for security procedures and processes. Together with new legislation such as the Defence Aid to Civil Authorities Act, it helped create in Australia a more sophisticated approach to the coordination of domestic national security policy at both official and Ministerial levels. This in turn assisted in the streamlined upgrading of national security measures following the 11 September attacks in the United States.

WP367 Malaysia's security perspectives By Andrew Tan

This Working Paper examines various perspectives that inform Malaysia's security policy and decisions.

WP366 QDR 2001: America's New Military Roadmap: Implications for Australia and Asia by Ron Huisken

A dominant strand in US political rhetoric during the 1990s was the intention to give Asia a more prominent position in its foreign and security policy. Despite emphatic changes in trade and immigration patterns in favour of Asia, this never really happened.

The Pentagon's QDR 2001, released on 30 September 2001, signals a clear and pronounced shift in emphasis toward Asia. Just as clearly, this shift transcends the war against terrorism.

This Working Paper examines this shift in US focus.

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WP364 'The First War of the 21st Century': Asymmetric Hostilities and the Norms of Combat by Coral Bell (ISBN 0 7315 5417 5, 22pp, A$8.00)

Like a thunderbolt out of a clear blue sky, the attacks of 11 September 2001 instantly transformed the atmosphere of international politics and, more particularly, strategic assumptions about the likely nature and diplomatic repercussions of asymmetric hostilities. What is unique since 11 September is that a truly dangerous challenge to the paramount power, the US, has come from 'a non-state actor', the al-Qa'ida terrorist group, who have neither fixed assets nor territory, but only a cause.

This paper surveys the implications of asymmetric hostilities and non-state actors of al-Qa’ida’s ilk for international relations and examines the likely normative shifts that 11 September has set in train.

WP362 ANZUS: Life after 50. Alliance Management in the 21st Century by Ron Huisken (ISBN 0 7315 5413 2, 35pp. A$8.00)

Australia's alliance with the United States, officially concluded on 1 September 1951, has become deeply embedded in this country’s defence and security posture. In its particular field, the alliance is right up there with the Hills hoist, Victa mower and sunburn cream used in the opening ceremony for Sydney 2000 to give an impressionistic suggestion of where we had been as a society over about the same period.

As one would expect with an arrangement that has survived for half a century, public support for the alliance has been consistently robust and is currently as strong or stronger than it has ever been. Within Australia’s strategic and foreign policy community, the alliance has been scrutinised and evaluated quite regularly. Does it impinge on Australia’s sovereignty? Does it hinder or enhance our foreign and defence policy interests? Does it involve the risk of entanglements that we would prefer to avoid? Do the benefits outweigh any actual or potential costs or risks?¹

While there is a broad spectrum of views, there is clearly strong mainstream support for the alliance from within this community. At the same time, a common theme in the commentary over recent years has been that the end of the Cold War has had or will have a significant effect on the character of the alliance and make management of the relationship more complex.² I share this view. The discussion below attempts to explore why this is the case and its likely ramifications.

WP361 Abstract Indonesian Security Responses to Resurgent Papuan Separatism: An Open Source Intelligence Case Study by Matthew N. Davies (ISBN 0 7315 5412 4, 99pp, A$12.00)

Simplistic but commonly held beliefs about State security functions would hold that the State manages an exclusive supply of the best possible quality of information, to which the public can only become privy via scandalous ‘leaks’. Whether conducting counter-insurgencies, or intelligence collection and analysis of such operations, a State's special apparatus is often accorded an intelligence mystique, and its functions assumed to be specially endowed with ‘the real story’, far removed from ‘low grade’ information available to journalists, NGOs and other non-State actors and agents.

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In challenging such views, this paper sets out to detail various aspects of the Indonesian counter-insurgency in Irian Jaya/Papua, with a view to two distinct goals. The first objective is to attain an overview of the counter-insurgency's political context and some of its implications for regional security. The second is to assert the rich, though seemingly neglected, intelligence value of public domain information as evident in the Papua case. Reliance is placed upon a critical appraisal of many sources, especially Indonesian press reporting, in the discussion heading towards both destinations.

Maps, tables and appendices are used to present the most specific and detailed aspects of the research made during the drafting of this paper. It must be emphasised that this study uses only information that has already been revealed in the public domain. Any analysis and opinion by the author is entirely his own, and made in a private capacity.

WP360 Missile Defence: Trends, Concerns and Remedies by Desmond Ball (ISBN 0 7315 5411 6, 29pp. A$6.00)

At the 14th Roundtable here in Kuala Lumpur in June 2000, I argued that: 'It is time for another debate about missile defences, but the arguments (both positive and negative) will be very different from those which obtained during the mutual nuclear deterrence situation of the Cold War.’³ That debate has now been vigorously joined, prompted by the decision of the Bush Administration to proceed with development and deployment of ballistic missile defence systems ‑ both national missile defences (NMD) and theatre missile defences (TMD). But the debate is very confused. The issues are difficult and complex, involving the interplay of technological, strategic and geopolitical considerations, and compounded by great uncertainty. The arguments are frequently self-serving, often ill-informed and mostly not conducive to constructive dialogue.

The proposed US NMD system is of dubious technological feasibility and problematic strategic purpose. It is officially supposed to defend the US against relatively small numbers of inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) launched by 'rogue states' such as Iraq or North Korea, but it is widely interpreted to be directed against the expanding Chinese ICBM force. Although the eventual shape of the NMD is yet to be decided, its basic components include fixed, land-based non-nuclear anti-missile missiles and a space-based missile launch detection and early warning system. Half a dozen tests of interceptors against target missiles have been conducted since 1997, but most have been failures.

There are concerns that the NMD program could stimulate a renewed nuclear arms race ‑ this time with both Russia and China determined to enhance their offensive missile capabilities in order to offset the US defences. It could also lead to abrogation of the 1972 Anti-ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, one of the few successful strategic nuclear arms control agreements. Many US allies remain unpersuaded regarding the wisdom of the US NMD program, but they are also very interested in theatre missile defence systems for themselves, and hence have subdued their concerns about NMD in order to preserve access to the US technology.

This paper describes the proposed US NMD system, at least insofar as its essential components can be clarified, as well as the currently operational Russian ABM system. It discusses some of the principal implications of ballistic missile defence (BMD) developments for strategic stability and arms control, including the prospects for the 1972 ABM Treaty and for a nuclear arms race in Asia. It also discusses several attendant concerns, such as the proliferation of ballistic and cruise missiles in Asia, and the development of battlefield and theatre missile defence systems, which greatly complicates assessment of NMD developments. There is some discussion of possible arms control initiatives, as well as of various proposals for cooperative ventures with respect to missile defence activities. It argues that the US NMD program is detrimental to regional stability and security, but little is being done to address the negative political and strategic consequences

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WP359 The New Submarine Combat Information System and Australia's Emerging Information Warfare Architecture by Desmond Ball (ISBN 0 7315 5410 8, 23pp, A$6.00)

The Australian Defence Force (ADF) is about to acquire a A$400m Combat System for the Collins-class submarines which should be regarded as the initial building block of a multi-billion dollar Information Warfare (IW) architecture designed to guarantee the success of ADF operations in future decades.

Well within the lifetime of this Combat System, the ADF will move to a force posture and associated operational concepts that will be very different to the platform-based and Service-dominated posture that obtains today. Rather, there will be a complex system (or "system of systems") involving intelligence collection and surveillance systems, command and control centres, manned and unmanned combat vehicles, and the most advanced information technology available, providing broadband linkages for massive flows of communications, data and imagery. The Combat System in the submarines will be an important element of this information warfare architecture.

The Collins-class submarines are potentially the most capable conventional submarines in the world. The new Combat System should make them the best in the world.

But servicing the submarine fleet is only one function of the Combat System. Any prospective system must also be assessed on its ability to support joint and coalition operations, particularly with respect to Information Warfare or Network-enabled Warfare.

WP358 South Africa's Defence Industry: A Template for Middle Powers? by Greg Mills & Martin Edmonds (ISBN 0 7315 5409 4, 31pp, A$6.00)

The South African arms industry employs today around half of its peak of 120,000 in the 1980s. A number of major South African defence producers have been bought out by Western-based companies, while a pending privatisation process could see the sale of the ‘Big Five’⁴ of the South African industry. This much might be expected of a sector that has its contemporary origins in the apartheid period of enforced isolation and self-sufficiency.

But the South African defence industry may well illustrate the way forward for middle-ranking powers in terms of reorganisation and the effective use of defence purchases to tie in with global players and the global market. This paper thus looks at four areas:

1. It provides a brief historical overview of the South African defence industry until the present.

2. It examines current developments and trends, especially the impact of the defence reorganisation and the recent R25 billion’s worth of defence purchases by the South African government on the industry.

3. It examines possible future purchases and the impact this might have.

4. It identifies global trends in defence equipment, the international arms market and prognoses of future types of conflict and wars.

It highlights future challenges for South Africa in the context of this changing global environment.

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WP 357 ABM — v- BMD: The Issue of Ballistic Missile Defence by Ron Huisken (ISBN 0 7315 5407 8, 2001, 44 + ii pp, A$6.00)

Ballistic missile defence engages important Australian interests in global and regional stability, arms control and non-proliferation. Australia's interests are sharpened because the long-standing partnership with the United States in ballistic missile early warning creates a direct association with missile defences. This paper concludes that, at the present time, deferring the deployment of national missile defences would serve US interests. It also contends, however, that we should regard eventual deployment as highly probable. This means that we need to think harder about the conditions in which this can occur with the greatest benefit (or least cost) to the various interests at stake, and to work toward creating those conditions. The paper argues that the most important condition is to deal more decisively than we have with the legacy of the Cold War.

WP 356 Factionalim and the Ethnic Insurgent Organisations by Desmond Ball and Hazel Lang (ISBN 0 7315 5406 X, 2001, 39 + ii pp, A$6.00)

This paper provides an overview of the various ethnic factors that have been operating in Burma over the past two decades or so.

WP 355 Professor A.D. Trendall and His Band of Classical Cryptographers by R.S. Merrillees (ISBN 0 7315 5404 3, 2001, 28 + iii pp, A$6.00)

Born Auckland, New Zealand, 28 March 1909 and educated at Kings College, Auckland; University of Otago, Dunedin; Trinity College Cambridge, Trendall was a Fellow at Trinity from 1936 until 1940, and the librarian at the British School in Rome from 1936 to 1938.

He was the Professor of Greek and Archaeology at the University of Sydney from 1939 until 1954, and Dean of the Faculty of Arts at that university from 1947 to 1950. He was the acting Vice-Chancellor of Sydney University in 1953, and then in 1954 he moved to the Australian National University to be its Deputy Vice Chancellor, as well as the Master of University House.

In 1966 and 1967 he was the Geddes-Harrower Professor of Greek Art and Archaeology at the University of Aberdeen. He returned to Australia and became a resident fellow at La Trobe University from 1969 until his death in 1995.

This is the story of his extra-curricular activities during the Second World War.

WP 354 The Indonesian Military Business Complex: Origins, Course and Future by Bilveer Singh (ISBN 0 7315 5403 5, 2001, 42 + vi pp, A$6.00)

One of the unique features of the Indonesian military (referred to as Angkatan Bersenjata Republik Indonesia or ABRI in the past and Tentara Nasional Indonesia or TNI at present) is its massive involvement in commercial activities. Even though the military's business activities flourished under the presidency of Suharto, its origins can be traced to the pre-Suharto era. The ostensible reasons for the quantum expansion of the military's business activities were the need to cater for the welfare of the soldiers and to augment the operational budget of the armed forces that were believed to be inadequately provided for in the annual defence budget. As such, every service of the military — namely, the army, navy, air force and the police — established their own foundations, under whose umbrella various business activities flourished, with the army emerging as the biggest economic actor from the military. Initially, there was very little opposition to the military's involvement in these activities, stemming from three main factors. First, as the military was a powerful political force in the country and its actions were sanctioned by President Suharto, hardly any opposition was raised. Second, the business activities did play an important role in raising the welfare of the soldiers as well as providing the armed forces with valuable off-budget finances to carry out its activities. Third, the military's business activities had a spill-over and multiplier effect, benefiting various private sector business, developing, as it were, a win-win situation. However, once the Suharto regime was toppled and Indonesia embraced democracy, the calls for greater transparency and accountability eventually took their toll on the military, and it is within these parameters that there has been growing criticisms about the military's involvement in business activities, especially at a time when the country's economy has been hard-hit by multiple crises. It is against this backdrop that this study examines the origins, evolution and future of the Indonesia military's 'business complex'.

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WP353 Japanese Airborne SIGINT Capabilities by Desmond Ball and Euan Graham (ISBN 0 7315 5402 7, 2000, 46 + ii pp, A$6.00)

Unsettled by changes to its strategic environment since the Cold War, but reluctant to abandon its constitutional constraints, Japan has moved in recent years to improve and centralise its intelligence-gathering capabilities across the board. The Defense Intelligence Headquarters established in Tokyo, in early 1997, is now complete and Japan plans to field its own fleet of reconnaissance satellites by 2002. Intelligence sharing with the United States was also reaffirmed as a key element of the 1997 Guidelines for Defense Cooperation. One of the less conspicuous but most remarkable features of Japan's intelligence drive has been the steady development of an airborne signals intelligence (SIGINT) capability that now ranks second only to that of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) and Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) together maintain about 16 dedicated SIGINT-collection aircraft, as well as half a dozen electronic warfare (EW) training aircraft with some electronic intelligence (ELINT) capabilities. There are another 13 E-2C Hawkeye and four E-767 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft with substantial secondary ELINT/electronic surveillance measure (ESM) capabilities. And there are 17 RF-4EJ reconnaissance aircraft which are equipped with a variety of ELINT/ESM systems. This Working Paper describes these aircraft and their capabilities, and discusses their SIGINT operations.

WP352 Landmines in Burma: the Military Dimension by Andrew Selth (ISBN 0 7315 2779 8, 2000, 47+ii pp, A$6.00)

Since the signing of the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty in Ottawa, considerable attention has been given to the problem of uncleared landmines around the world and the thousands of casualties they cause each year. Yet, in all the literature produced on this subject to date, and discussions of the problem in various international forums, mention is rarely made of Burma. This is despite the fact that anti-personnel (AP) landmines have been, and are still being, manufactured and laid in large numbers in that country, with serious consequences for both combatants and non-combatants alike. Neither the Burmese armed forces (known as the Tatmadaw), nor the country's numerous armed insurgent groups, have shown any sign of restricting their use of these weapons. To the contrary, in recent years the use of AP landmines by both sides has significantly increased, making them a major feature of armed conflict in Burma and exacerbating a problem which threatens to haunt that country and its neighbours for years to come.

WP351 Burma's Order of Battle: An Interim Assessmentby Andrew Selth (ISBN 0 7315 2778 X, 33 + iv pp, 2000, A$6.00)

While the Burmese government has always been happy to trumpet the achievements of the country's armed forces (or Tatmadaw), it has been very reluctant to release any details of their structure, arms inventories or combat capabilities. Particularly since Ne Win's coup d'état in 1962, the rubric of 'national security' has been used by the Rangoon regime to deny both Burmese citizens and external observers any accurate or comprehensive information about such matters. Using a wide range of open sources, however, it is possible to glean sufficient material to form a reasonably reliable picture of the Tatmadaw's order of battle. While it cannot be considered authoritative, this basic data can still be used to measure the extraordinary growth of the Burmese armed forces since 1988, and to analyse their arms procurement programmes. Similar methods can be used to gauge the strength of the country's paramilitary Police Force, and to survey the weapons holdings of the country's numerous armed insurgent groups.

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WP350 Strategic Trends in the Asia-Pacific Region by Paul Dibb (ISBN 0 7315 2777 1, 2000, 19 + ii pp, A$6.00)

This paper assesses the strategic environment of the Asia-Pacific region to 2005. It analyses the geopolitics of the region, the strategic outlook and the balance of power, and the risk of military conflict in such places as the Taiwan Strait, the Korean peninsula and the Indian subcontinent. It also examines the prospects for Indonesia's security and what that might mean for Southeast Asia as a whole. The paper concludes by analysing America's policies towards the region and whether they need improvement.

WP349 Interpreting China-Indonesia Relations: 'Good Neighbourliness', 'Mutual Trust' and 'All-Round Cooperation by He Kai (ISBN 0 7315 2776 3, 44 + 2 pp, 2000, A$6.00)

President Wahid's visit to China in December 1999 opened a new phase of Sino-Indonesian relations. Through interpreting the bilateral official statement issued during the visit of Wahid, this paper defines a three-step framework for the development of Sino-Indonesian relations: 'good-neighbourliness', 'mutual trust' and 'all-round cooperation'. Within this three-step framework, the paper attempts to achieve three aims: first, to identify the underlying dynamic of the relationship between the two countries; second, to assess the main obstacles in the development of Sino-Indonesian relations, both historically and in the future; and third, to present some recommendations for both governments. The paper points out that the present relationship between the two countries is just at the first of the three steps. The Taiwan issue and the ethnic Chinese issue are the two core sensitive points for China and Indonesia respectively. In the foreseeable future, the two countries should focus on forging 'mutual trust', which will mainly depend on China's efforts to reduce Indonesia's suspicions. The strategic concerns of Indonesia relating to the Natuna Islands and the South China Sea disputes will emerge as the main problems between the two counties, although the issues of the ethnic Chinese in Indonesia and the role of international communism will still maintain some influence. Finally, the paper argues that strategic cooperation between the two countries featuring 'all-round cooperation' could develop; however, the extent of such cooperation will mainly depend on the international situation, especially on the policies of the United States and its allies towards the two countries.

WP348 The Army's Capacity to Defend Australia Offshore: the Need for a Joint Approach by John Caligari (ISBN 0 7415 2773 9, 2000, 29 + ii pp, A$6.00)

This paper examines the role of the Australian Army in the maritime strategy for the defence of Australia set out in Australia's Strategic Policy (1997), and the constraints which may limit the ability of the Australian Defence Force to carry out this strategy, focusing on the example of one possible task the seizure of an offshore base. It emphasises the need for a concept-led joint force approach to identifying tasks and capabilities for all services. The paper has four sections: the first provides the background to the development of current strategic policy; the second presents some assumptions concerning potential threats to Australia, and identifies national resource constraints on force development; the third identifies the task considered in this paper and also summarises the findings of recent UK and US Marine Corps reviews of force tasks and structures; and the fourth identifies the implications of the new strategic guidance for an operational concept and for land force capabilities, within a framework of 'key military capabilities'.

WP347 The Prospects for Southeast Asia's Security by Paul Dibb (ISBN 0 7315 2772 0, 2000, 13 + ii pp, A$6.00)

Southeast Asia's security is at a turning point. Only three years ago, before the Asian economic crisis, the prospects for regional security appeared sound. Southeast Asia seemed to be enjoying endless economic growth and ASEAN, thirty years after its foundation, was a force for regional stability. The situation has now changed quite radically. The Asian economic crisis brought Indonesia to its knees and severely disrupted the economies of Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, as well as South Korea. Since the overthrow of the Suharto regime in 1998, the key security question in the region is whether Indonesia will progress to a stable democracy and a civil society in which the military play an important but subordinate role: peace and stability in Indonesia, a country that accounts for forty per cent of ASEAN's population, is the key to peace and stability in Southeast Asia.

This paper begins by analysing potential threats to regional security and the role of the major external powers. Then it examines the future of regional security organisations, including ASEAN, the ASEAN Regional Forum, APEC, ASEM, the East Asia caucus, and the South Pacific Forum. The final part of the paper assesses Indonesia's role in regional security and the prospects for a stable and democratic Indonesia.

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WP346 Officer Education and leadership training in the Tatmadaw: A Survey by Maung Aung Myoe (ISBN 0 7315 2771 2, 41 + ii pp, 2000, A$6.00)

Military training in Myanmar is the second task of the Tatmadaw (armed forces), the first being combat duty and the third being public works. Training is the most important business of the Tatmadaw in peacetime and can take many forms. The Tatmadaw has been developing a training regime to provide officer education and leadership training for its officers. In this context, a wide range of skills need to be developed and a variety of people need to be trained. This paper describes the development of military training in Myanmar, from 1948 to the present.

WP345 Will America's Alliances in the Asia-Pacific Region Endure? By Paul Dibb (ISBN 0 7315 2770 4, 19 + ii pp, 2000, A$6.00)

The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, it reviews how America's alliances fit into the changing strategic environment in the Asia-Pacific region and why the nature of international politics in the region has different implications for the American alliance system from the situation which now exists in NATO Europe. Second, it seeks to set out in a methodologically more rigorous way some of the reasons both external and domestic why alliances persist and what sort of changes might occur that could undermine America's key alliances in the region with Japan, South Korea and Australia. Finally, it presents policy recommendations for measures to preserve the effectiveness of these alliances in the future.

WP344 The Principle of Non-Intervention and ASEAN: evolution and emerging challenges by Herman Kraft (ISBN 0 7315 2768 2, 2000, 18+ii pp, A$6.00)

This paper explores the evolution of the principle of non-intervention, particularly as it operates in the Asia-Pacific region, and the influences that play on it. While discussion has generally revolved around the diminished influence of ASEAN in Asia-Pacific affairs, attitudes towards non-intervention are shaped by more than current developments in the region: they are historically conditioned, equally affected by the impetus towards globalisation in the world's economy and by derivative consequences of what has been referred to as third-wave political democratisation, particularly the growth of non-governmental networks. The paper also looks at the implications of the changing attitudes towards the principle of non-interference. While changing economic and political conditions globally signal a need for modification of the principle, which modifications and alternatives emerge will depend on how much the state system in the Asia-Pacific can accommodate to change without compromising the legitimacy of individual governments.

WP343 Cambodia and Southeast Asia by Tony Kevin (ISBN 0 7315 2767 4 11 +7 pp, 1999 A$.6.00)

After surveying the main events of Cambodia's recent history, this paper examines the extent to which political life in Cambodia has returned to normal during the last year and a half since the internationally observed election in July 1998. It also looks critically at outside perceptions of Cambodia today and the extent to which these perceptions, mutually reinforced in international media and human rights organisations, still influence politics within Cambodia. In particular, the activities of some US groups, which reject the legitimacy of the present Cambodian government, are analysed. The paper also describes Cambodia's successful integration into ASEAN, which it joined in March 1999. The paper concludes that though many problems remain, Cambodia's prospects are good; continuing progress in the strengthening of civil society will further reduce the risks of social breakdown and foreign intervention.

WP342
The Tatmadaw in Myanmar since 1988: An Interim Assessment by Maung Aung Myoe (ISBN 0 7315 2765 8 31 + vi pp, 1999, A$6.00)

Since the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) came to power in Myanmar in September 1988, the Tatmadaw, or Myanmar armed forces, has taken a number of measures aimed at effecting a degree of political transition while assuring its own future role in politics. This paper describes the outcome of the 1990 election; the deadlock between the SLORC and the National League for Democracy (NLD) over the question of drafting a new constitution for Myanmar and the work of the National Convention Convening Commission; the role of the Tatmadaw in fostering mass organisations to gain public support; the creation of a political wing in the Tatmadaw's command structure and moves to ensure the ideological orientation of civil servants; the extension of state influence into border areas through the policy of negotiating peace settlements with insurgent groups; and the increasing Tatmadaw management of large and small economic enterprises. At the same time, the Tatmadaw has purchased new equipment and increased its establishment. While the role of the Tatmadaw in future politics will not go unchallenged, it seems likely that the Tatmadaw will continue to control the political process, while allowing some space for the function of pseudo-democratic institutions and the debate of non-military issues.

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WP341
The Asian Financial Crisis: Corruption, Cronyism and Organised Crime by John McFarlane (ISBN 0 7315 2764 X, 22 + ii pp, 1999, A$6.00)

This paper considers the contribution of corruption, cronyism and organised crime to the Asian financial crisis, drawing lessons for future regional stability and good governance. It focuses principally on Japan, which has long been the largest and most successful economy in Asia and was the model for the development of the ‘Asian tiger’ economies. The adoption of sound financial and banking regulatory practices, taking a firm stand against bribery and cronyism, and introduction of measures against the infiltration of organised crime into legitimate business in Japan is of fundamental importance to the rest of Asia. The Japanese, and other affected governments in the region, are now making substantial efforts to deal with these problems. These efforts will achieve their full potential when it is more widely accepted that the solution to the Asian financial crisis lies not with the International Monetary Fund or other external players, but with the regional countries themselves.

WP340
The Evolving Security Architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region

by Desmond Ball

(ISBN 0 7315 2763 1, 30 + ii pp, 1999, A$6.00)

This paper discusses the principal features of the evolving security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region. It also provides a brief review of the most important security cooperation mechanisms and processes which have been developed over the past decade, as well as some discussion of prospective developments with respect to regional security cooperation. It argues that the impact of dialogue and other cooperative measures on the regional geostrategic architecture remains marginal. The emerging security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region can be roughly depicted as a three-tiered structure with very fluid outlines. The basic tier consists of some dozen and a half essentially independent blocks, representing the sovereign nation-states in the region. Connecting many of these are bilateral relationships of various sorts and strengths, and overlaying these blocks and their connections is a relatively thin fabric of multilateralism, woven from a multiplicity of different organisations and processes, and of problematic strength. A fundamental question is whether the institutions of dialogue and cooperation can attain sufficient maturity and strength to transform an emerging form of balance of power system into one which becomes more like a concert of powers.

WP 339
Military Doctrine and Strategy in Myanmar: A Historical Perspective

by Maung Aung Myoe

(ISBN 0 7315 2762 3, 1999, 27+ii pp, A$6.00

This paper surveys the three historical phases in the development of military doctrine and strategy in Myanmar, since independence in 1948. It sets out both security perceptions and policies, charting developments in each against the situation at the time, and also notes the contributions of the leading actors in each period. In the initial period, doctrine focused on methods of coping with foreign invasion; the second period saw the development of counter-insurgency doctrine and the formulation of the concept of total people’s war; while in the third period the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) set out the three objectives of maintaining the Union of Myanmar, national solidarity and national sovereignty, and concentrated on force modernisation. Finally, the paper discusses the policy statement of the Tatmadaw, or armed forces, issued in February 1999, and the missions for the armed forces set out in this statement.

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WP 338
The Burmese Armed Forces Next Century: Continuity or Change?

by Andrew Selth (ISBN 0 7315 2761 5, 1999, 36+ivpp, A$6.00)

Since the Armed Forces (or Tamtmadaw) took back direct political control of Burma in 1988, they have been engaged in an ambitious military expansion and modernisation programme. Despite the country's improved security environment, and continuing economic and social problems, this programme looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Neither Aung San Suu Kyi, nor the Burmese democratic movement as a whole, have yet formulated or articulated any alternative policies on defence issues. Yet it is clear that their vision for the Tatmadaw of the future, derived largely from the writings of Burmese independence hero Aung San, is different in several key respects from that of the current regime. Should a democratically elected civilian government of some kind come to power in Rangoon, there are not likely to be many immediate or dramatic changes in the armed forces. Over time, however, such a government would attempt to make major adjustments to the size of the Tatmadaw, its share of the national budget, the role of the military intelligence apparatus and the way in which the armed forces are employed as an institution of the state.

WP337
Defence Strategy in the Contemporary Era by Paul Dibb

(ISBN 0 7315 2760 7, 1999, 15+ii pp, A$6.00)

How should the current strategic era be described? What ideas should replace the short-lived 'new world order' and 'end of history', or the backward-looking 'post-Cold War era'? In the contemporary era, some defence establishments are responding to the end of the Cold War by scaling back defence forces and structuring for peacekeeping, while others seek to develop expeditionary forces for higher levels of regional conflict. For high-technology Western forces there is also a growing need to respond to potential asymmetrical threats involving nuclear, biological or chemical attacks. This paper sets out to analyse these contending strategic ideas and to place them in a practical context. It examines current strategic concepts and tests them against how defence policies and force structures are actually being developed in the Western alliance. The paper offers a critique of what the author sees as a growing trivialisation of the debate about the purpose of defence forces. It concludes that if the United States and its allies continue with the kind of incoherent strategic discourse that we are now hearing, the West will face potential disasters in the decade ahead.

WP336
Burma and Drugs: The Regime's Complicity in the Global Drug Trade by Desmond Ball

(ISBN 0 7315 2758 5, 1999, 14+ii pp, A$6.00)

Over the past decade, Burma has produced between half and two-thirds of the world’s opium and heroin. It has also produced an increasing proportion of the world’s supply of amphetamine-type stimulants. One of the many controversies concerning the drug trade is the appropriate characterisation of the place of the Burmese government and military in it. Some observers have called Burma a narco-dictatorship; others contend that this is unfair, as there is no evidence of direct government involvement in the narcotics trade as a matter of policy. This working paper describes the gross dimensions of Burma’s roles in the international drug trade, including some important changes in the last few years. It then discusses some of the main features of the government’s involvement. It shows that, whatever the semantics of ‘matter of policy’ and ‘government as a whole’, the State Peace and Development Council, which rules the country, is very dependent on drug trafficking for economic and strategic reasons, and that the whole regime is infused with corruption.

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WP335 Transnational Crime and Illegal Immigration in the Asia-Pacific Region: Background, Prospects and Countermeasures by John McFarlane

(ISBN 0 7315 2757 7, 1999, 24+ii pp, A$6.00)

Transnational crime is a major problem with serious social and humanitarian implications, whereas illegal immigration is a social and humanitarian problem with serious transnational criminal involvement. Both these issues have significantly increased their impact as a result of globalisation; the revolution in information technology and communications; the ease of international movement of people and cargo; and the consequent social, economic and political changes that have taken place over the last decade.This paper discusses both subjects in the Asia-Pacific context, with comments on the nature and extent of the problem, together with some indications of its future development, and some suggestions on approaches which might be taken to minimise the impact of transnational crime and the criminality associated with illegal immigration. The paper concludes that the level of threat from both transnational crime and illegal immigration will increase over the next decade. To limit the dangers posed by these issues, serious efforts should be made to achieve a greater level of understanding of these threats and a global commitment to combat them.

WP334 Burma and Weapons of Mass Destruction

by Andrew Selth

(ISBN 0 7315 2756 9, 1999, 24+ii pp, A$6.00)

For more than a decade now, Burma has been publicly accused of possessing weapons of mass destruction. Despite repeated denials by the military regime in Rangoon, reports of chemical and biological weapons use against ethnic insurgents and narcotics-based armies in Burma continue to appear. None of these claims have been verified by independent observers, but doubts remain. Since the early 1990s they have been given added focus by suggestions that the Burmese armed forces have received technical advice on such weapons from China, as a way of assisting the Rangoon regime to force various insurgent groups to abandon their struggles against the central government. Despite Burma's strong anti-nuclear credentials, a few observers have even canvassed the possibility that Burma may one day wish to acquire nuclear weapons. Should any of these reports prove to be true, then the impact on the regional strategic environment would be far-reaching.

WP333 Security Developments and Prospects for Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region, with particular reference to the Mekong River Basin by Desmond Ball

(ISBN 0 7315 2754 2, 1999, 18+ii pp, A$6.00)

The security environment in the Asia-Pacific region since the end of the Cold War has been characterised by rapid change and increased uncertainty, the rise of regional powers (especially China), robust arms acquisitions programmes, a resurgence of territorial disputes (especially involving maritime claims), and the emergence of economic and environmental security issues, as well as transnational crime and other ‘new agenda’ matters. Processes and structures for institutionalising dialogue and other cooperative security activities have been established, although progress has slowed since about 1997. This paper has three main parts. First, there is a brief outline of the principal security concerns in the Asia-Pacific region. The second part provides a review of the most important regional security cooperation mechanisms and processes which have been developed over the past decade. The third part is an attempt to identify the principal security implications of the development of the Mekong region. It discusses some of the geostrategic considerations, the possible cooperative aspects, and raises the so-called ‘human security’ dimensions. It concludes that without dialogue and cooperative efforts, exploitation of the Mekong River and its associated resources is likely to engender tensions and conflicts, and that ‘local’ perspectives and interests together with the principles of ‘’human security’ should be essential parts of Mekong development.

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WP332 Strategic Information Warfare: A Concept by Daniel T. Kuehl

(ISBN 0 7315 2753 4, 1999, 17+ii pp, A$6.00)

Exploitation of the information environment for strategic policy objectives is not new. However today’s information environment has been transformed by four developments — cyberspace, digital convergence, global digital omnilinking, and computer control of infrastructures — which have greatly expanded the opportunities for information warfare (IW), creating both disproportional rewards for those exploiting the information environment and increased vulnerability for those wishing to secure their own information systems. This paper discusses the key technological and societal developments that are shaping the information age and which provide the context for strategic information warfare (SIW), and the target sets — software, hardware and ‘wetware’ (the human element) — against which SIW can be conducted.

WP331 Implications of the East Asian Economic Recession for Regional Security Cooperation by Desmond Ball

(ISBN 0 7315 2752 6, 1999, 16+ii pp, A$6.00)

The Asian economic crisis which started in the third quarter of 1997 and spread and worsened in the next six months, has affected all dimensions of regional security, including the basic security architecture and the relative standing of the major powers, the systemic tendencies toward conflict or peace and stability, levels of defence expenditure and capital acquisition programmes, and bilateral and multilateral cooperative security activities. This paper has two main parts. First, it reviews the principal areas in which the economic crisis has impacted upon regional security and, more particularly, multilateral processes for preventive diplomacy and crisis management. Second, it suggests several avenues for revitalisation of these multilateral processes: increased dialogue to bring greater stability to the regional balance of power; updating of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Concept Paper; training in and implementation of the concept of preventive diplomacy; greater use of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP) by ARF; institutionalisation of security cooperation in Northeast Asia; development of more robust mechanisms for the prevention of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; refocusing defence cooperation; and further study of the relationship between economics and security.

WP330 The US-Australian Alliance: History and Prospects by Desmond Ball

(ISBN 0 7315 2751 8, 1999, 30+ii pp, A$6.00)

This paper describes some of the principal historical aspects of the US-Australian alliance, including both the fundamental changes in Australian basic national security policy in the 1970s and 1980s and the central elements of continuity and resilience, of which special intelligence agreements and US facilities in Australia have been critical. It discusses the most important recent and prospective developments affecting Australian strategic and defence policy and planning (with particular respect to the alliance), including the profound transformation underway in the security architecture of the Asia-Pacific region, technological developments such as the revolution in military affairs, Australia’s commitment to engagement with Asia, and the growth of multilateral security cooperation in the region. It also discusses domestic considerations, including public opinion, concerning the alliance. It concludes that, although maintenance of a close and strong alliance is the most likely prospect, there will inevitably be tensions between the defence of Australia and the US connection, which in the absence of clear and coherent official guidance could be resolved to the detriment of both.

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WP329 The Relevance of the Knowledge Edge by Paul Dibb

(ISBN 0 7315 2749 6, 1998, 23+ii pp, A$6.00)

Australian defence planning is undergoing an important change, moving away from an emphasis on superior platforms to a stress on superior management of information — ‘the knowledge edge’ — to equip the Australian Defence Force for the twenty-first century. This paper focuses on the defence policy issues raised by this change. It begins by examining what has been said in the public domain about the knowledge edge. Is it a satisfactory definition? How are the knowledge edge and the ‘revolution in military affairs’ related? Next, it analyses Australia’s future strategic environment and regional technological trends to determine the relevance of the knowledge edge. What levels of conflict, and intensity of military operations, are relevant to Australia’s knowledge edge requirements? The final section of the paper describes the operational and organisational changes that will be required to make the knowledge edge effective. The paper argues for a more integrated approach to the knowledge edge than just the focus on intelligence, surveillance and command and communications capabilities that are identified in the government’s 1997 policy document, Australia’s Strategic Policy. To be credible, Australia’s knowledge edge will also require more rapid acquisition of information systems, flatter hierarchies, greater devolution of military decision making, changed operational combat procedures, and superior strategic analytical skills.

WP328 Drugs, Transnational Crime and Security in East Asia by Alan Dupont

(ISBN 0 7315 2748 8, 1998, 30+ii pp, A$6.00)

This paper explores the dynamics and security implications of narcotics trafficking in East Asia and the relationship between drugs and transnational crime. The principal conclusion reached is that the illicit drug trade is emerging as a significant long-term security issue for the region. Narcotics trafficking has grown enormously in sophistication and volume in conjunction with the spread of Asian organised crime in the decade since the end of the Cold War, and it will continue to do so in the absence of effective national and regional countermeasures. While the production and consumption of narcotic substances has a long history in East Asia, there are several new developments which have forced narcotics trafficking onto the regional security agenda for the first time. Once primarily a producer of heroin, East Asia has become a major heroin consumer and an emerging market for a new class of designer drugs. Drug dependency is rising at an alarming rate, including in states with no recent history of drug addiction such as China and Vietnam, while drug money is distorting regional economies and exacerbating corruption and political instability. Narcotics trafficking is now big business in the region and is one enterprise which shows little sign of being adversely affected by East Asia’s economic crisis.

WP327 Building the Tatmadaw: The Organisational Development of the Armed Forces in Myanmar, 1948-98 by Maung Aung Myoe (ISBN 0 7315 2742 9, 1998, 56+vi pp, A$6.00)

Fifty years after Myanmar’s independence, a weak, small and disunited armed force, the Tatmadaw, has emerged into a strong, large and united one, with a dominant role in Myanmar politics. In the process of building a strong and united Tatmadaw, splits along the lines of racial background, organisational origin and political affiliation were resolved; the gap between staff and field officers was bridged; and competition between intelligence officers and field commanders was settled. Unity of the officer corps was further maintained by giving a fair share of senior command positions to graduates of different schools of training. However, despite its growth in strength, the Tatmadaw remained an army of infantry battalions. Drawing on sources not publicly available, this paper gives a detailed account of the development of the Tatmadaw — its organisational structure, command arrangements, recruitment policies, training establishments and ideology — from 1948 to today.

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WP326 Researching Security in East Asia: From 'Strategic Culture' to 'Security Culture' by Pauline Kerr (ISBN 0 7315 2741 0, 1998, 21+ii pp, A$6.00)

This paper was written as part of the Culture, Peace and Security in East Asia research project at the Australian National University. It has three aims. First, to give a preliminary and brief overview of the literature which considers ‘culture’ to be a factor in security thinking. Second, to suggest ways in which, given the existing literature, the research project might make an original contribution to understanding security in East Asia. Third, to highlight issues in the literature which will help to inform this research. One of the few literatures in the area of security studies which considers ‘culture’ to be an important factor in understanding security goes under the name of ‘strategic culture’ literature. The paper addresses several publications which appear to fit within this category. It considers, albeit summarily, the contributions and shortcomings of this literature and concludes from this that a better understanding of security in East Asia would be gained from research which kept the focus on culture but adopted a broader concept, namely ‘security culture’.

WP325 The Nuclear Crisis in Asia: The Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Programmes by Desmond Ball and Mohan Malik (ISBN 0 7315 2740 2, 1998, 30+ii pp, A$6.00)

The shockwaves of the nuclear tests in India and Pakistan in May 1998 were felt around the world. The tests, and the nuclear weapons development programmes which they manifested, raised the prospect of uncontrolled nuclear proliferation, increased the potential for crisis instability on the subcontinent, raised the likelihood of a nuclear arms race between India and China, and destabilised the security of the Asia-Pacific region as a whole. The first part of this paper, by Professor Desmond Ball, examines the history, extent and output of the Indian and Pakistani nuclear programmes. It also outlines the help provided to Pakistan by China and the extent of China’s own nuclear programme, and the consequences of the tests for the regional security outlook. The second part of the paper, by Dr Mohan Malik, focuses on nuclear India. It looks at the factors which led to India ‘coming out of the nuclear closet’ in May 1998, forcing Pakistan to follow suit, and examines the implications of India’s nuclear tests for the future of the nuclear non-proliferation regime, nuclear deterrence, Sino-Indian rivalry and the changing balance of power in the Asia-Pacific.

WP324 The Remaking of Asia's Geopolitics by Paul Dibb (ISBN 0 7315 2739 9, 1998, 12+ii pp, A$6.00)

Dramatic change is occurring in Asia’s strategic outlook, due to the effects of the Asian economic crisis, the collapse of the Suharto regime in Indonesia and the demonstration of a nuclear weapons capability by India and Pakistan. This paper examines the likely directions of change in Asia’s geopolitics in the next decade, and also sets out the lessons of recent events for those making security assessments. Regionally, multilateral institutions - APEC, ARF and ASEAN — have been ineffective in dealing with recent problems; the status of South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia has been reduced; and Japan has failed to take a leadership role. These factors have reinforced the place of the United States in the region and have also allowed China to emerge as a more dominant player. For the future, stability may slowly return. However, planners will need to monitor both Japan and China closely for signs of further economic shock, and as the icons of globalisation, interdependence and multilateralism have been challenged, we may see increased nationalism and a return to greater economic protectionism. More generally, the failure to predict the Asian economic crisis warns against specialisation of focus, unaccompanied by over-arching multidisciplinary assessment, and a doctrinaire failure to examine alternative outcomes. This paper examines a range of future strategic scenarios for Asia and their implications for the geopolitical stability of the region.

WP323 Responses to NATO's Eastward Expansion by the Russian Federation by Alexei Mouraviev (ISBN 0 7315 2737 2, 1998, 32+ii pp, A$6.00)

The Russian Federation failed to prevent NATO’s eastward expansion but still retains a negative attitude to that development. Russia’s military and political leadership have repeatedly emphasised that the expansion of the alliance will feed Russian suspicions of some Western countries and will motivate it to take countermeasures. This paper examines the measures Moscow has taken and is capable of taking in response to the expansion, such as formation of counter-alliances, revision of arms reduction treaties, creation of new weapons systems, and geographic redistribution of forces. Special emphasis is given to Russia’s conventional military capabilities and changes in its military strategy and war planning, and Russia’s options for future military actions against new and potential members of NATO are analysed.

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WP322 Singapore's Defence Policy in the New Millennium by Andrew Tan (ISBN 0 7315 2736 4, 1998, 21+ii pp, A$6.00)

Singapore’s defence policy is an important subject for study because Singapore’s economic importance and military capability rank it among Southeast Asia’s middle powers despite its small size and population. Its relentless pursuit of military security since independence in 1965 indicates its own sense of strategic uncertainty. The trends indicate that it is determined to achieve a military capability that is superior to all its neighbours’, utilising the latest military and information technologies which have been proven in the Gulf War. However, the interactive nature of the regional arms build-up could result in a full arms race, leading to enhanced suspicions and ultimately to conflict, thereby destroying the very security that the build-up was supposed to ensure. What this means is that defence policy and foreign policy must go hand-in-hand. Full use of its substantial military capability to support political and security objectives will only be achieved in the context of an integrated defence and foreign affairs policy framework, with political objectives being the principal concern. In particular, both Singapore and Malaysia need the political will to work together to achieve overriding common objectives, given the fact that the defence of both countries is indivisible. These Machiavellian realities should provide the basis for a real political and defence alliance, with both countries needing to develop their military modernisation programmes to complement, not compete with, each other. The alternative would be a recurring arms race which the states involved would regret in time to come.

WP321 The Future of the ASEAN Regional Forum: An Australian View by Alan Dupont (ISBN 0 7315 2735 6, 1998, 14+ii pp, A$6.00)

The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) has been dismissed by its critics as nothing more than a talking shop. Its defenders, on the other hand, argue that the still-fledgling multilateral security organisation has already made a significant contribution to confidence building among its disparate member states, many of whom were once adversaries. This paper examines the performance of the ARF to date, especially in the fields of confidence building and preventive diplomacy. Its principal conclusions are that the ARF has achieved a great deal, but the organisation needs to do more if it is to remain relevant. Serious issues relating to future membership, defence representation and ASEAN’s leading role have yet to be resolved. And if preventive diplomacy is to work there must first be agreement on a set of guiding principles. This paper outlines what some of these principles should be and recommends a number of new proposals for preventive diplomacy.

WP320 UN Peacekeeping, UNIFIL and the Fijian Experience by Jim Sanday (ISBN 0 7315 2734 8, 1998, 45+iv pp, A$6.00)

In response to the Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon in March 1978, the UN Security Council created the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to confirm the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory; to restore international peace and security; and to assist the Lebanese government restore its lawful authority in the area. After twenty years, UNIFIL continues to hold the ring in Lebanon while diplomatic and political efforts continue the search for a peaceful resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict. This paper looks at the evolution of UN peacekeeping practice and its deviation from Charter theory. It discusses some of the more important operational challenges that have confronted UNIFIL since its inception in March 1978. It also examines the impact the UNIFIL commitment has had on Fiji’s national and military budgets. Some of the more obvious benefits that have accrued to Fiji as a result of its service with UNIFIL are identified. The paper finds that Fiji’s participation in UNIFIL and other international peacekeeping assignments has brought significant benefits to the country in terms of international goodwill, government revenue, employment, the training of youth and other socio-economic benefits.

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WP319 The Evolution of China's Perception of Taiwan by Shen Lijun (ISBN 0 7315 2733 X, 1998, 15+ii pp, A$6.00)

The sharp response by Beijing to Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui’s US visit in 1995 reflects a fundamental change in its perception of Taiwan’s true position on the issue of reunification and consequently a major change in its Taiwan policy. Based on the latest information, this paper examines the evolution of the perception changes on the part of Beijing since the late 1940s to predict some likely future trends in the development of Beijing-Taipei relations.

WP318 The South African National Defence Force: Between Downsizing and New Capabilities? by Greg Mills (ISBN 0 7315 2732 1, 1998,23+ii pp, A$6.00)

The successful creation of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) since the advent of South Africa's non-racial democracy in 1994, has arguably been one of the most successful incidences in the transformation of the Republic's post-apartheid civil service. However, on the cusp of the new millennium, critical questions about the SANDF's budget allocations, personnel levels, and equipment raise concerns about its future abilities and roles.

This paper seeks to address the following questions:

• What is the background to the formation of the SANDF?
• What are the roles and responsibilities currently envisaged for the SANDF?
• What are the future problems facing this force?
• What is the potential for defence cooperation across the Indian Ocean?

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